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I am not an expert on the ACS by any means, but it appeared to me that
the 2005-2007 ACS estimates differed the most from the census estimates
where there were major differences in household size and/or occupancy.
Thus, one of our towns (Jacksonville AR), has seen a drop in both
household size and occupancy since 2000 and also shows population
decline in the 2005-2007 ACS, while the census estimates through the
same period show slight population growth in Jacksonville.<br>
<br>
Also, I want to add that we had four special censuses in cities in our
area around mid-decade, and the population, household size and
occupancy figures are not too far from the 2005-2007 ACS results. I
still believe, though, that both ACS and census estimates still tend to
under-count population slightly, at least in my region, compared with
census counts.<br>
<br>
To me it looks like ACS 2005-2007 population totals are affected by
household size and occupancy. But the correlations I'm seeing could be
a coincidence. If anyone knows better, please weigh in.<br>
<br>
Jonathan Lupton AICP<br>
Research Planner<br>
Metroplan<br>
Little Rock AR<br>
501-372-3300<br>
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:Elaine.Murakami@dot.gov">Elaine.Murakami@dot.gov</a> wrote:<br>
<blockquote
cite="midCF032B70701A774D9ADC2FC046347BCD202AD0@OSTMAIL04VS5.ad.dot.gov"
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<div class="Section1">
<p class="MsoNormal" style=""><font face="Courier New" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Courier New";">I contacted
Freddy Navarro (Assistant
Division Chief for ACS Statistical Design) at the Census Bureau. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style=""><font face="Courier New" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Courier New";"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style=""><font face="Courier New" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Courier New";">Freddy said: “We
use the most current vintage (of population estimates) and take an
average of
the pop estimates and then control the ACS data to those averages. So,
for example, for the 2005 - 2007 ACS 3-year estimates, we calculate an
average
of the 2005, 2006, and 2007 pop estimates using the 2007 series.
That's
why comparing the 2007 1-year estimates to the 2005 - 2007 3-year
estimates is
not an apple to apple comparison. Such comparisons are discouraged.”<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style=""><font face="Courier New" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Courier New";"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style=""><font face="Courier New" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Courier New";">Elaine’s note:
the phrase “current vintage” is important. For example,
let’s say that for <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:PlaceType w:st="on">County</st1:PlaceType>
<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Z</st1:PlaceName></st1:place>, in 2005, the
2005 population
estimate made in 2006 might be 100,000. But, the 2005 estimate for <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:PlaceType w:st="on">County</st1:PlaceType> <st1:PlaceName
w:st="on">Z</st1:PlaceName></st1:place>
made in 2007 might be 110,000. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style=""><font face="Courier New" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Courier New";"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font face="Courier New" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Courier New";">The Census Bureau
will be releasing an updated version
of the Design and Methodology paper in the next few days. This
document includes
a section that explains the multiyear weighting methodology in detail.
</span></font><font color="navy" face="Arial" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial; color: navy;">I will
assume that it will be posted on this page, on the right
side called “documentation” <a
href="http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/">http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="navy" face="Arial" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial; color: navy;"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="navy" face="Arial" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial; color: navy;">Elaine<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;" align="center"><font
face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span
style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman";">
<hr tabindex="-1" align="center" size="2" width="100%"></span></font></div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><font face="Tahoma" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Tahoma; font-weight: bold;">From:</span></font></b><font
face="Tahoma" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Tahoma;">
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net">ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net</a> [<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net">mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net</a>] <b><span
style="font-weight: bold;">On Behalf Of </span></b>Frank Lenk<br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Tuesday, April
21, 2009 9:10
AM<br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:ctpp-news@chrispy.net">ctpp-news@chrispy.net</a><br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b> RE: [CTPP]
Comparison of
ACS 1-year, ACS 3-year & Annual Estimates </span></font><font
face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span
style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">After more
investigation, it appears
that the 3-year estimates are, in fact, controlled to a moving average
centered
on the middle year. But you have to use the right 3-year estimates.
When we did
this with the most recent estimates (which now go to 2008), the
three-year
average centered on 2006 did NOT match, but when we looked at the
historical
release of 2007 estimates, and used those to calculate an 3-year
average, the
result DID match the 3-year ACS total.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">I still find it
confusing that the
characteristics are NOT averaged, but the totals are?????<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Frank<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div
style="border-style: solid none none; border-color: rgb(181, 196, 223) -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1pt medium medium; padding: 3pt 0in 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><font face="Tahoma" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Tahoma; font-weight: bold;">From:</span></font></b><font
face="Tahoma" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Tahoma;">
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net">ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net</a> [<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net">mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net</a>] <b><span
style="font-weight: bold;">On Behalf Of </span></b>Michael Cline<br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Tuesday, April
21, 2009 8:25
AM<br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:ctpp-news@chrispy.net">ctpp-news@chrispy.net</a><br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b> RE: [CTPP]
Comparison of
ACS 1-year, ACS 3-year & Annual Estimates <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Someone from the ACS
discussed this in
January at TRB (at the Census subcommittee meeting). Unfortunately, I
cannot find my notes, but I seem to recall that the 3-year estimates
use a
middle population estimate (i.e. 2006). <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style=""><font color="#1f497d"
face="Futura Lt BT" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Futura Lt BT"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Michael
E. Cline</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Times New Roman"
size="3"><span
style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">
<br>
</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Futura Lt BT" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Futura Lt BT"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Research
Associate</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Times New Roman"
size="3"><span
style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">
<br>
</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Futura Lt BT" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Futura Lt BT"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Institute
for
Demographic & Socioeconomic Research</span></font><font
color="#1f497d" face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span
style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">
<br>
</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Futura Lt BT" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Futura Lt BT"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">The
University of Texas at San Antonio</span></font><font color="#1f497d"
face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span
style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">
<br>
</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Futura Lt BT" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Futura Lt BT"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">1
UTSA Circle</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Times New Roman"
size="3"><span
style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">
<br>
</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Futura Lt BT" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Futura Lt BT"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">JPL
4.03.18A<br>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">San Antonio</st1:City>, <st1:State
w:st="on">TX</st1:State> <st1:PostalCode w:st="on">78249-0704</st1:PostalCode></st1:place></span></font><font
color="#1f497d" face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span
style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">
<br>
</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Futura Lt BT" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Futura Lt BT"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">(210)458-6537
f(210)458-6541</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Times New Roman"
size="3"><span
style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">
<br>
<a href="mailto:michael.cline@utsa.edu"><font face="Futura Lt BT"
size="2"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Futura Lt BT";">michael.cline@utsa.edu</span></font></a>
<br>
</span></font><i><font color="blue" face="Futura Lt BT" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Futura Lt BT"; color: blue; font-style: italic;"><a
href="http://idser.utsa.edu/">http://idser.utsa.edu</a></span></font></i><font
color="#1f497d" face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span
style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">
</span></font><font color="#1f497d" face="Futura Lt BT" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Futura Lt BT"; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Arial" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"> </span></font><font
color="#1f497d"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div
style="border-style: solid none none; border-color: rgb(181, 196, 223) -moz-use-text-color -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 1pt medium medium; padding: 3pt 0in 0in;">
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><font face="Tahoma" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Tahoma; font-weight: bold;">From:</span></font></b><font
face="Tahoma" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Tahoma;">
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net">ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net</a> [<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net">mailto:ctpp-news-bounces@chrispy.net</a>] <b><span
style="font-weight: bold;">On Behalf Of </span></b>Frank Lenk<br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Monday, April
20, 2009 11:26
PM<br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:ctpp-news@chrispy.net">ctpp-news@chrispy.net</a><br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b> [CTPP]
Comparison of ACS
1-year, ACS 3-year & Annual Estimates <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">The attached
spreadsheet was prepared by
my staff, showing the comparison in total county-level population
between the
2007 ACS 1-year estimates, the 2007 ACS 3-year estimates and the Census
Bureau’s July 1, 2007 population estimates by county. The latter
are supposed to be the official population estimates to which ACS is
controlled. And, based on the attached spreadsheet, this appears to be
true for (most) counties in the 1-year estimates. But the total
population in the 3-year ACS estimates is systematically biased
downwards from
the total population in the 1-year ACS estimates and/or the official
estimates. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Does anyone have a
good idea why?<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">There is some vague
language about
differences in weighting in the Census Bureau’s documentation, but I
can’t find a satisfying explanation. I do notice that the faster a
county
is growing the bigger the discrepancy between the 3-year and 1-year
estimates
of total population. This suggests that the 3-year estimates are being
controlled
to an average of the 3 years of official total population estimates
(2005, 2006
and 2007). But my understanding is that the3- year ACS estimates are
not
averaged. Instead, they a represent a single sample taken over a
3-year
period. My expectation, then, is that this sample would be expanded to
the same population as the 1-year estimates – The 3-year and 1-year
estimates are, after all, identified by the same year (2007) while a
3-year
estimate based on a 3-year moving average would be closer to 2006’s
1-year estimate. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Any help in
clarifying this issue would
be greatly appreciated.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Sincerely,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Frank<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Frank Lenk<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Director of Research
Services<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Mid-America Regional
Council<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">600 Broadway, <st1:address
w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on">Suite</st1:Street> 200</st1:address><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on"><font
color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">Kansas City</span></font></st1:City><font
color="#1f497d"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">, <st1:State
w:st="on">MO</st1:State> <st1:PostalCode w:st="on">64105</st1:PostalCode></span></font></st1:place><font
color="#1f497d"><span style="color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><a
href="http://www.marc.org">www.marc.org</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">816.474.4240<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><a
href="mailto:flenk@marc.org">flenk@marc.org</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);">816.701.8237<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font color="#1f497d" face="Calibri" size="2"><span
style="font-size: 11pt; color: rgb(31, 73, 125);"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
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